The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its first semi-annual coffee report for 2024.

The report projects global coffee production for 2024/25 to increase by 7.1 million bags from the previous year to reach 176.2 million, driven mainly by Brazil's ongoing recovery and increased output from Indonesia.

Due to increased supplies, global exports are anticipated to rise by 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million, driven primarily by robust shipments from Indonesia and Brazil.

The USDA says that consumption is projected to increase by 3.1 million bags to 170.6 million, and ending stocks are expected to grow by 1.9 million bags to 25.8 million after declining for three consecutive years.

Coffee production occurs predominantly in tropical countries, while consumption is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the European Union and the US.

According to the USDA, Brazil's combined arabica and robusta harvest is expected to increase by 3.6 million bags, while Indonesia's output is projected to rise by nearly 2.8 million bags.

Production in Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee grower, was reported to be stable at 29 million bags, with over 95% of its total output remaining as robusta.

Regional overview

The report highlights Brazil's pivotal role as the world's largest coffee producer, with a forecasted arabica and robusta output of 69.9 million bags for the 2024/25 season.

Despite Brazil's recovery, challenges such as high temperatures impacting cherry development have tempered expectations slightly from previous highs.

Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer globally, is anticipated to produce 12.4 million bags of coffee, marking a slight increase but still below peak levels due to heightened infestations of the coffee cherry borer insect.

The country has faced significant production fluctuations in recent years, stemming from weather extremes and economic factors affecting fertiliser use.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, known for its robust robusta production, is expected to maintain stable output at 29.0 million bags.

The report notes that while robusta remains resilient in Vietnam, adverse weather conditions, including delayed rainy seasons and above-average temperatures, have affected yields.

Production in Central America and Mexico is projected to increase by 300,000 bags to reach 16.6 million bags, predominantly driven by arabica beans, which make up 95% of the total output.

Nicaragua anticipates a substantial rise of nearly 300,000 bags to reach 2.7 million bags, while Mexico is expected to see a more modest gain of 30,000 bags, totalling 3.9 million bags.

Meanwhile, production levels are expected to remain unchanged in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama.

Bean exports for the region are forecasted to rise by 500,000 bags to 13.4 million bags, supported by slightly increased supplies and an anticipated reduction in stocks.

Combined arabica and robusta harvest in Indonesia is projected to increase significantly by nearly 2.8 million bags, reaching 10.9 million bags.

Robusta output is anticipated to recover by 2.7 million bags to reach 9.5 million bags, benefiting from favourable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where about 75% of the robusta coffee is cultivated.

Last year, excessive rainfall during cherry development adversely affected the crop, leading to sub-optimal conditions for pollination.

Meanwhile, arabica production is expected to see a slight rise to 1.4 million bags. With the anticipated higher production levels, exports are forecasted to increase by 2.2 million bags, totalling 6.5 million bags.

India's combined arabica and robusta harvest is forecasted to decrease by 100,000 bags to 6.0 million. arabica output is expected to drop to 1.4 million bags due to poor pre-monsoon rains, while robusta production is projected to remain stable at 4.6 million bags under normal growing conditions.

Consequently, bean exports are anticipated to decline slightly to 4.2 million bags.

European Union imports are projected to increase by 2.0 million bags, reaching 47.5 million, driven by higher shipments from Brazil and Indonesia.

In the calendar year 2023, the top suppliers were Brazil (36%), Vietnam (25%), Uganda (8%) and Honduras (7%). Ending stocks in the EU are expected to rise by 2.1 million bags, totalling 11.6 million.

The US, which imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans, is forecasted to see an increase of 900,000 bags, reaching 24.5 million bags, due to rising consumption.

In 2023, the main suppliers were Brazil (27%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (11%) and Guatemala (6%). Ending stocks in the US are expected to remain unchanged at 5.7 million bags.

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